CBN Holds MPR at 27% November 2025: Full MPC Decision, Inflation Update & What It Means for Naira, Loans & Food Prices

CBN Holds MPR at 27%: What Nigeria’s Latest Monetary Policy Decision Means for You in 2026

On 25 November 2025, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) shocked many analysts by keeping the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) unchanged at 27.00% — the highest in over two decades. This was announced by the Governor of The Central Bank, Mr Olayemi Cardoso at a news conference during The committee's 303rd meeting in Abuja. While some expected another hike, Governor Olayemi Cardoso and the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) chose stability over fresh tightening.

The MPR serves as the baseline interest rate within an economy, other interest rate used within the economy are based on it.

Here’s everything you need to know: the key decisions, why the CBN paused, and the real impact on inflation, naira exchange rate, loans, food prices, agriculture, manufacturing, stocks, and your wallet.

Key MPC Decisions – November 2025

• MPR retained at 27.00% (no change)
• - Asymmetric corridor widened to +50/–450 bps (makes it slightly cheaper for banks to borrow from CBN overnight)
• CRR unchanged: 45% (commercial banks), 16% (merchant banks), 75% (public sector deposits)
• Liquidity Ratio unchanged at 30%

In simple terms: no new pain for borrowers, but no major relief either.

Why Did the CBN Hold Rates Instead of Hiking Again?

The MPC pointed to seven straight months of falling inflation as the main reason:

• Headline inflation dropped to 16.05% in October 2025 (from 18.02% in September and a peak of over 34% in mid-2024)
• Food inflation crashed to 13.12% (lowest in years)
• Core inflation eased to 18.69%

The Committee believes the aggressive 15.75 percentage points of hikes delivered since May 2024 are still working their way through the system (lagged effect). They want to see how far disinflation can go before deciding the next move.

Recap of the 303rd Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) Meeting held on 24th and 25th November, 2025.#CBN#MPC pic.twitter.com/m9DMbB2a7w

— Central Bank of Nigeria (@cenbank) November 26, 2025

Winners and Losers: Sector-by-Sector Impact

1. Inflation and Cost of Living → Clear Winner

The continued decline in food and core inflation is the biggest positive. With harvest season in full swing and the naira relatively stable, Nigerians should see further relief on yam, rice, tomatoes, transportation, and household items in December 2025 – February 2026.

2. Naira Exchange Rate and FX Market → Stable and Strengthening

External reserves hit $46.7 billion (10.3 months of import cover), current account in surplus, and Nigeria finally off the FATF grey list + credit rating upgrades = more dollars flowing in. Expect the parallel market to stay between ₦1,600 – ₦1,700/$ in the short term, possibly stronger if oil prices cooperate.

3. Banking Sector and Loan Interest Rates → Mixed but Resilient

• High CRR (45%) continues to lock up liquidity → lending rates will remain painfully high (30–35% for most business loans).
• However, the widened corridor gives banks a little breathing room on overnight borrowing.
• 16 banks already fully recapitalised — stronger balance sheets ahead.

Verdict: Don’t expect cheaper loans before mid-2026.

4. Agriculture and Food Production → Big Winner

Stable forex + lower food inflation + seasonal harvest = farmers can plan better. Cheaper diesel and stable fertilizer prices (thanks to steady naira) will boost output in the 2026 planting season

5. Manufacturing Sector → Gradual Recovery

The PMI jumped to **56.4 in November 2025** — the highest in five years. Manufacturers are expanding again because:

• Raw material import costs are no longer skyrocketing
• Power situation slightly better
• Consumer demand slowly returning as inflation eases

Companies like Dangote Cement, BUA Foods, Unilever, and Nestlé should post stronger numbers in Q4 2025 and Q1 2026.

6. Nigerian Stock Exchange (NGX) → Bullish Signal

The “hold” decision removes the fear of another rate hike that would have crushed valuations. Banking stocks (Zenith, GTCO, Access, UBA) and consumer goods stocks are already reacting positively in the last 24 hours. The NGX All-Share Index is up ~2.8% since the announcement.

7. Imports and Export Businesses

• Importers: Breathing easier — no fresh naira crash means predictable costing.
• Exporters (non-oil): Still enjoying the competitive exchange rate.

8. Small Businesses and SMEs

Still tough. Borrowing at 30%+ remains brutal, but falling inflation means customers have slightly more naira in their pockets — a slow but positive trend for retailers, restaurants, and transporters.

Political Implications

This decision is a major endorsement of President Bola Tinubu’s economic reforms. Removing Nigeria from the FATF grey list and securing sovereign rating upgrades in the same week give the administration powerful talking points ahead of the 2027 election cycle. The narrative of “pain now, gain soon” is finally getting some real data to back it up.

What Happens Next?

The next MPC meeting is **23–24 February 2026**. If inflation falls below 15% by January and reserves keep rising, the CBN could start considering the first rate cut in years (maybe 100–200 bps). Until then, expect more of the same: high rates, falling inflation, gradual recovery.

Bottom Line for Ordinary Nigerians

• Your transport and food bills should keep dropping into the new year
• Don’t take new loans unless absolutely necessary — rates are still sky-high
• If you have savings, Treasury bills and fixed deposits still pay 20–25%
• The worst of the inflation storm appears to be over

After two years of extreme pain, Nigeria’s economy is finally showing consistent green shoots. The CBN’s decision to “hold” rather than “hike” is the strongest signal yet that the light at the end of the tunnel is real.

What do you think — is the CBN doing the right thing by pausing, or should they have cut rates already? Drop your thoughts in the comments!